敏感性水利工程社会稳定风险演化SD模型

SD model of social stability risk evolution for sensitive water conservancy projects

为减少水利工程建设对局部地区社会稳定带来的冲击,综合分析其社会稳定风险,利用网络层次分析法(ANP)确定风险指标重要度,同时,构建敏感性水利工程社会稳定风险演化系统动力学(SD)模型,包含公众风险感知、工程固有风险、政府管理风险和社会环境风险4个子系统,全面系统分析社会稳定风险,厘清其相关关系、模拟风险传播路径,并结合工程算例模拟仿真。研究结果表明:该SD模型确定影响敏感性水利工程社会稳定的主要风险为公众风险感知;随着安全投入的增加,敏感性水利工程的社会稳定风险值随之呈现先上升而后大幅下降的趋势,并逐渐处于可控状态。

In order to reduce impact of various factors on social stability of local areas during construction of water conservancy projects,their social stability risks were analyzed comprehensively,and importance of risk indicators were determined by using network analytic hierarchy process(ANP).Meanwhile,a SD model of risk evolution for sensitive water conservancy projects was constructed,which included four subsystems,namely public risk perception,projects’inherent risk,government management risk and social environmental risk.Then,these risks were analyzed,and their mutual relations as well as propagation paths were clarified.Finally,an engineering example was adopted for simulation.The results show that public risk perception was confirmed by SD model to be a major factor affecting social stability during construction of sensitive water conservancy projects.Along with increase in safety investment,social stability risks’value will rise first and then fall sharply before they become controllable gradually.