经济周期与行业周期叠加下企业债务风险变化的实证分析——来自复杂周期波动下房地产企业的证据

Empirical Analysis on the Change of Enterprise Debt Risk under the Superposition of Economic Cycle and Industry Cycle——Evidence from Real Estate Enterprises under Complex Cyclic Fluctuations

复杂经济环境下周期存在叠加效应和复杂性,剖析经济周期和行业周期研究企业债务风险、周期叠加强化效应下企业债务风险与防控举措具有重要性。发现经济周期和房地产行业周期异质与相似并存,多个区间存在周期叠加,叠加强化效应下房地产企业债务风险表现出差异性,发现房地产企业在经济周期和行业周期的叠加强化上升阶段相对于非叠加上升阶段,企业债务风险水平整体相对更低,企业债务风险与复杂周期联系紧密。揭示多周期叠加与企业债务风险变化规律,拓展复杂周期性下风险防范研究,符合最近国家重要文件和会议精神的要求。

Cycles in complex economic environment have superimposed effect and complexity,so it is important to analyze the economic cycle and industry cycle to study the enterprise debt risk,and the enterprise debt risk and prevention and control measures under the effect of superimposed cycle strengthening.It is found that the business cycle and the real estate industry cycle are heterogeneous and similar,and multiple intervals have cycle superposition;under the effect of overlapping intensification,the debt risk of real estate enterprises shows differences.It is found that the overall debt risk level of real estate enterprises is relatively lower in the stage of superposition strengthening and rising of economic cycle and industry cycle than in the stage of non-superposition rising;corporate debt risk is closely linked to complex cycles.To reveal the law of multi-cycle superposition and the change of corporate debt risk,and to expand the research on risk prevention under complex periodicity is in line with the requirements of recent important national documents and the spirit of the conference.