基于系统动力学的天山北坡城市群水资源优化配置研究

Study on optimal allocation of water resources in urban agglomeration on northern slope of Tianshan Mountain based on system dynamics

本文以天山北坡城市群8市为研究对象,利用系统动力学理论,构建区域水资源配置模型;根据模型构建的3种水资源配置方案,对2017—2043年城市经济社会用水量和地区生产总值分别进行计算机仿真分析。并提出了要解决天山北坡城市群经济社会用水短缺和生态环境问题,实现区域城镇化可持续发展,必须坚持以水定产、生态优先,通过保护好天山北坡城市群水生态等多项举措来实现的建议。

In this paper,8 cities in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain are taken as the research objects,and the regional water resources allocation model is constructed by using the system dynamics theory.According to the three water resources allocation schemes constructed by the model,the urban economic and social water consumption and regional GDP from 2017 to 2043 were simulated and analyzed by computer.In order to solve the problems of economic and social water shortage and ecological environment in the northern slope urban agglomeration of Tianshan Mountain,and to realize the sustainable development of regional urbanization,it is necessary to adhere to the measures of determining production by water and giving priority to ecology,and to protect the water ecology of the northern slope urban agglomeration of Tianshan Mountain.