广东省新型城镇化时期生活用水变化及驱动机制

Changes of domestic water consumption and its driving mechanism in the period of new urbanization of Guangdong

运用多区域对数平均迪氏分解方法(logarithmic mean divisia index,LMDI)分解模型,从区域及时空变化角度,对比分析广东省21市人口变迁、城镇化等因素对生活用水变化的驱动效应,探究不同地区城镇化发展对于用水产生的影响机制。结果表明:研究期内,广东省生活用水总量稳中有增,其中城镇生活用水量逐年增加,年均增长率1.4%;新型城镇化建设以来,农村生活用水量降低,人均生活用水量呈逐年下降趋势;分区域看,各地区城镇生活用水量占生活用水总量比重不断增加,尤以粤北地区增加最为明显,城镇生活用水比重由2009年的43.8%增长至2018年的52.8%;人口变化效应是导致生活用水总量增加的最主要的正向驱动指标,其次为人口分布与城乡结构效应;而用水强度效应是负向驱动指标,延缓了生活用水总量的增加。城乡结构效应对珠三角城市群生活用水量增加呈正影响,而与非珠三角地区生活用水总量呈负影响。

The multi-regional LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index)decomposition model is developed to analyze the driving effect of domestic water consumption changes caused by the demographic and urbanization process of 21 cities in Guangdong Province,according to the perspective of spatial and temporal changes.The LMDI method(LMDI-I)was used to perform additive decomposition on the changes of domestic water use.Based on the traditional method,factors such as population distribution and urban-rural structure were incorporated into the factor decomposition model to explore the driving mechanism of each factor on the change of total domestic water consumption.The results show that:(1)The total domestic water consumption in Guangdong increased steadily,and urban domestic water consumption has increased significantly with an average annual rate of 1.4%.Since the process of new urbanization,the domestic water consumption in rural households dropped and per capita domestic water consumption showed a obviously descending trend.(2)From a regional perspective,the proportion of urban water consumption to domestic water consumption continued to increase,especially in the northern Guangdong with the proportion of urban domestic water consumption increasing from 43.8%in 2009 to 52.8%in 2018.(3)The demographic change factor was the most important positive driving effect leading to the increase in the total domestic water consumption,followed by the population distribution factor and urbanization factor.The water intensity factor was a negative driving effect,delaying the increase in total domestic water consumption.Urbanization factor had a positive impact on the increase in domestic water consumption in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration,but had a negative impact on the total domestic water consumption in the other regions.In order to ensure the supply of domestic water during the new urbanization period,it is necessary to further strengthen the overall planning of urban and rural domestic water in various regions,comprehensively consider the differences in regional water scarcity,and innovate the regional water resources differential management mechanism.Meanwhile on the premise of satisfying the demand of the basic water consumption indicators of the region,areas with significant water performance will be allocated with more water consumption indicators,which can help generate endogenous power for water saving in the region,and increase the overall carrying capacity of regional water resources to provide a guarantee for the sustainable development of new urbanization.