制度质量影响中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI效率了吗?

Does the Institutional Quality Affect the Efficiency of China′s OFDI in Countries Along the ’Belt and Road’?

随着"一带一路"倡议的推进,中国对沿线各国直接投资的不平衡逐步加剧,投资格局亟待改善。在此背景下,东道国制度质量能否影响中国对沿线国家OFDI效率,进而改善中国投资格局,目前尚未有学者对此进行全面的研究。以随机前沿方法为基础,利用"一步法"的投资非效率模型实证分析东道国的制度质量对中国对"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI效率的影响,并进一步分析制度质量影响中国对沿线各国OFDI效率的异质性,研究发现:沿线国家的政治制度和法治制度会对中国开展OFDI产生显著的影响,相比而言,经济制度的影响较小,其中,东道国的政治稳定性、政府效率、政府规模、腐败控制、金融自由度以及产权保护度都能显著地抵消部分投资非效率,而政治民主度、贸易自由度、法治完善水平等则会通过成本阻碍效应、贸易替代效应及竞争挤出效应抑制中国对外直接投资。此外,制度质量对中国对不同类型国家OFDI效率的影响具有较大差异,中国据此规避制度风险,将有助于提升OFDI效率水平。

With the advancement of the’Belt and Road’initiative,the imbalance of China’s direct investment in countries along the’Belt and Road’is gradually intensifying,and the investment pattern needs urgently to be improved.In this context,whether the institutional quality of host country can affect China’s OFDI efficiency in countries along the’Belt and Road’,and then improve China’s investment pattern,has not yet been comprehensively studied by scholars.Based on the stochastic frontier method,this paper,using the one-step investment non-efficiency model,attempts to make an empirical analysis of the impact of the institutional quality in the host countries on China’s OFDI efficiency in the countries along the’Belt and Road’,leading to a further analysis of the heterogeneity of China’s OFDI efficiency in these countries.The results show that,in these countries,it is found that the situation of their political institutions and rule of law would have a significant influence on the development of OFDI by China,while their economic institutions would have a smaller effect by contrast.It is observed that the political stability,the governance efficiency,the government scale,the control of corruption,financial freedom and the degree of property rights protection can offset part of the investment inefficiency significantly,and hence promote China’s foreign direct investment.On the other hand,the degree of political democracy,the trade freedom and the perfection level of legal system will restrain China’s OFDI through cost blocking effect,trade substitution effect and competitive crowding out effect.In addition,the influence of institutional quality on China’s OFDI efficiency of different types of countries is quite different.Therefore,China can avoid institutional risks and help improve the efficiency of OFDI.