基于天气因素的配电网故障停电风险预测研究

Research on Risk Prediction of Distribution Network Outage Based on Weather Factors

预测配电网运行中的潜在风险对配电网运维有重要的意义。因此,提出一种基于天气因素的配电线路故障停电预测方法。分析配电网故障停电概率与天气变量及其他可能因素变量之间的关联关系,得出故障特征变量,并基于ReliefF算法对故障特征变量合集与配电网故障停电概率进行关联性分析,得到故障特征变量的重要程度权重排序。依据主要故障特征变量,形成基于XGBoost算法的配电线路故障停电预测模型,并对预测结果进行评估及算例验证。通过算例证明该方法可实现对配电网线路故障停电概率的预测,有利于及时发布故障预警信息,为配电网运维部门提供运维指导。

Predicting the potential risk in the operation of distribution network is great significance to the operation and maintenance of distribution network. Therefore, considers a method for predicting power outage failure based on weather factors, analyzes the correlation between the probability of power outages in the distribution network and weather variables and other possible factor variables, and obtains the fault characteristic variables.Based on the ReliefF algorithm, analyzes the correlation between the collection of fault characteristic variables and the probability of power outages in the distribution network to obtain the fault The importance degree of feature variables is ranked by weight.According to the main fault characteristic variables, forms a prediction model of distribution line fault blackout based on XGBoost algorithm, and evaluates and verifies the prediction results and by calculation examples.The example verification proves that this method can realize the prediction of the probability of power failure of the distribution network line, which is beneficial to the timely release of fault warning information and provides useful operation and maintenance guidance for the operation and maintenance department of the distribution network.