“一带一路”倡议对沿边口岸开放的县域经济绩效评估--基于云南25个边境县(市)的倍差法分析

Assessment of the Economic Impact of Belt and Road Initiative on the Open Ports Along the Boarder:DID Analysis of 25 Border Counties and Cities in Yunnan Province

沿边开放以来,沿边口岸及口岸城市成为经济社会发展的重要引擎和增长极。以云南沿边25个边境县(市)作为研究对象,利用倍差法实证分析口岸开放给口岸边境县(市)带来的经济增长与产业结构调整净效应。研究表明:沿边口岸开放有效促进了边境口岸县(市)经济增长,增长净效应为19.031;也促进了边境口岸县(市)产业发展,其中第三产业的增长效应最显著,第二产业次之,第一产业最弱;从动态效应看,随着口岸开放力度的增强,边境口岸县(市)的经济持续增长,产业结构也从“一三二”逐步演化为“三二一”模式结构,但缺乏“二三一”的演化过渡。在“一带一路”倡议下,以口岸对接好“沿边、跨境”两大特色,边境县(市)构建以产业链为纽带,形成贸易互动、产业互补、资源共享、机制联动、协调发展的沿边经济带、贸易合作带。

Since the opening-up of border areas,border ports and cities have become important engines and growth poles of economic and social development.Taking 25 counties(cities)along the border of Yunnan Province as the research object,this paper analyzes the net effect on economic growth and industrial structure adjustment brought by the opening-up to border counties(cities)by the method of multiple difference.The results show that the opening of border ports has effectively promoted the economic growth of border port counties(cities),with a net effect of 19.031;the opening of border ports has also promoted the development of border port counties(cities),among which the growth effect on the tertiary industry is the most significant,the second industry the next,and the primary industry the weakest;in terms of dynamic effect,with the strengthening of opening-up,economy of border port counties(cities)has gained sustainable development,and the industrial structure has gradually evolved from"first-third-second"to"third-second-first"model structure,but there is still no transition to"second-third-first".Under the initiative of B&R,ports will be a link for border areas and cross-boarder areas.Border counties(cities)will build up an industrial chain as the link,forming a border economic belt and trade cooperation belt with trade interaction,industry complementarity,resource sharing,mechanism linkage and coordinated development.