城市轨道交通-经济复合系统协同发展研究

Research on the Collaborative Development of a Composite System for an Urban Rail Transit-economy

为探究城市轨道交通与社会经济内在发展联系,构建基于协同学理论的城市轨道交通-经济复合系统协同模型。模型首先基于因子分析筛选复合系统序参量,其次建立改进的差分式协同度模型计算协同度量化指数,最后基于哈肯模型探究演化机制、预测协同发展趋势。以成都市数据为例,应用模型分析2010—2018年复合系统协同演化过程,案例分析表明:复合系统在该阶段内经历两个协同演化周期,于2018年进入更新期(或衰退期)。此外,协同度预测结果显示该复合系统潜在协同水平有降低趋势,应采取措施及时调整。

In order to explore the synergy between urban rail transit and economic development,a composite system for an urban rail transit economy was constructed based on synergy theory.First,the order parameters of the system were screened based on a factor analysis.Second,an improved difference fraction synergetic model was established to calculate the synergetic degree of the composite system.Finally,based on the Haken model,the co-evolution curve of the urban rail transit economy composite system was fitted to predict future development trends.Taking Chengdu as an example,the case analysis showed that the composite system experienced two coevolution cycles and entered a period of decline(self-renewal period)in 2018.In addition,the synergetic prediction results show that the potential synergetic level of the composite system will decrease in the future and should be adjusted in time.