基于天气分型的赤潮预报方法研究——以福建沿海为例

Study on the red tide prediction method based on weather patterns in the coastal area of Fujian Province

以2001—2012年我国沿海赤潮相关资料为依据,对福建沿海赤潮的时空分布特征进行了分析。结果显示:4月第6候—7月第1候是福建沿海赤潮暴发的最盛期,赤潮高发海域为闽东北沿海和厦门近海,大面积赤潮主要发生在三沙湾、厦门和平潭海域。在此基础上,利用NCEP再分析资料,从大气环流形势诱发赤潮的角度出发,基于典型天气形势场相似法构建了福建沿海5—6月赤潮定量化预报模型。敏感性试验和预报检验结果表明,该模型能够在赤潮大面预报中获得较为满意的效果,预报检验准确率达55.8%,可以在赤潮业务预报中予以应用。此外,对模型生成的4种最易诱发福建沿海赤潮的天气类型:西南季风扰动型、高压脊控制型、东亚低槽扰动型和西太平洋副热带高压控制型分别做了个例分析,以期为赤潮预报研究提供参考。

This paper analyses the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of red tides in the coastal area of Fujian province using the harmful algal blooms data from 2001 to 2012.The results show that the red tide most frequently occurs from the last pentad of April to the first pentad of July in the northeast coast of Fujian province and the Xiamen coastal area.Meanwhile,the red tides events covering large areas mainly occurs in Sansha Bay,Xiamen and Pingtan coastal area.A quantitative red tide forecast model for the Fujian coastal area in May and June is established based on typical weather patterns derived from the NCEP reanalysis data.The results of sensitive experiment and forecast validation show that the model is capable to forecast red tides events with a forecast accuracy of 55.8%.There are four typical weather patterns that are most favorable for the occurrence of red tide in the coastal area of Fujian province,which are southwest monsoon disturbance,high-pressure ridge control,East Asia low-pressure trough disturbance and West Pacific subtropical high control.A case study for each typical weather patterns is conducted,which provides a reference for the future study of red tide forecast.