宁波舟山港气象灾害风险及服务效益评估

EVALUATION OF RISKS OF METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS AND BENEFITS FROM METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR NINGBO-ZHOUSHAN PORT

近年来海洋经济和港口快速发展,港口吞吐量不断增长,气象灾害对港口的安全生产和经济效益影响日益显著。对港口气象风险及气象服务效益的评估不仅能促进公众对气象事业的认知,也是各部门制定相关工作规划的重要参考。采用国际减灾战略风险评估模型,基于1974—2019年气象数据和2013—2019年港口险情事故数据,讨论浙江省宁波市舟山港不同重现期下的灾害危险性、承载体脆弱性、自然灾害风险指数。采用对比分析法构建服务效益评估模型,基于致灾因子综合强度指数、港口管制数据、码头计划兑现率数据、气象监测数据,对模型进行量化。评估结果表明,2016年、2019年港口自然灾害风险偏高。2017年以来,气象服务通过提高作业效率、增加作业时间,为港口产生上亿元的服务效益。提出的评估技术已在宁波业务应用,对类似港口有一定借鉴。

In recent years, with the rapid development of marine economy and expansion of port throughput in China, impacts of meteorological hazards on the operational safety and economic benefits of ports have become increasingly significant. The assessment of meteorological risks and the benefits of meteorological services for ports can not only promote public awareness of meteorological undertakings,but also serve as important reference for various departments to formulate work plans. Based on the 1974—2019 meteorological data and 2013—2019 accident data of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, this article adopts the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction(ISDR) model to discuss the intensity of meteorological hazards, vulnerability of hazard bearing body and risk index of natural hazards in different return periods. A model for the evaluation of the economic benefits of meteorological services is established based on comparative analysis of port control data, ship operation fulfillment rates and weather monitoring data. The evaluation results show that since 2017, meteorological services have effectively reduced hazard risks, improved operational efficiency, increased operating hours, and generated hundreds of millions of Yuan for the port. The evaluation model proposed in this paper has been applied to the port meteorological services in Ningbo and can be used as a reference for similar ports.