负荷成长特性在短期空间负荷预测中的应用

Application of Load Growth Characteristics inShort Term Spatial Load Forecasting

本文围绕如何进一步精益化区域空间负荷预测中近期负荷预测的思路与方法,以尽可能地提高短期空间负荷预测的准确度为目标。通过对某地区居住、商业及工业等多种负荷性质各异的电力用户进行深入调研,归纳其负荷增长特性规律,进而通过S型曲线模型对地块负荷增长特性进行数学模型整合,确定各类电力用户的负荷增长模型参数。最后结合传统空间负荷预测的步骤给出了短期负荷预测的操作方法。

This paper focuses on how to further refine the ideas and methods of short﹣term load forecasting in regional spatial load forecasting,aiming at improving the accuracy of short﹣term spatial load forecasting as much as possible.Based on the in﹣depth investigation of the residential,commercial,industrial and other power users with different load characteristics in a certain area,the load growth characteristics are summarized,and then the mathematical model of the load growth characteristics of the plot is integrated through the S﹣curve model,and the load growth model parameters of various power users are determined.Finally,combined with the steps of traditional spatial load forecasting,the operation method of short﹣term load forecasting is given.