健康城市发展影响因素动态交互研究——来自地级市的经验证据

Dynamic Interactive Research on Influencing Factors of Healthy City Development

鉴于健康城市建设对实现中国高质量发展以及保持城市"韧性"的重要价值,本文选取2013-2017年中国277个地级市面板数据构建PVAR模型,探究健康经济、健康环境、健康社会和健康文化之间的动态交互影响。研究结果表明:健康城市发展存在明显的路径依赖效应,呈现东强西弱的区域异质性特征。健康经济对于环境、社会和文化的影响除超特大城市外,均表现为一些消极的负面影响,存在1-3期动态滞后效应。健康环境、文化和社会三要素可以相互支撑和促进。由此,各级政府应继续完善顶层设计引导健康城市建设,以产业转型升级和绿色经济发展为抓手,不断提升公共服务水平,逐步加强文化建设,充分激活各市场主体的健康发展理念,实现要素间良性互动;并借由新基建和数字经济的发展契机,保证健康城市建设合理有序推进。

Given the importance of healthy city construction to achieve high-quality development in China and to maintain urban"resilience",this paper selects panel data of healthy urban development in 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2013 to2017,and establishes PVAR model to study the dynamic interaction among healthy economy,healthy environment,healthy society and healthy culture.The results show that there is a clear path dependence effect on the development of healthy cities,showing the regional heterogeneity characteristics of strong east and weak west.In terms of sub-items,the impact of health economy on the environment,society and culture has negative effects except the super-mega-cities,and has a lag effect of 1~3 periods.The healthy environment,healthy culture and healthy society have mutual promotion.Governments at all levels should continue to improve the top-level design to guide the construction of healthy city,take the industrial transformation and upgrading and green economy development as the starting point,constantly improve the level of public service,gradually strengthen the cultural construction,fully activate the healthy development concept of various market entities,and realize the benign interaction between elements;and take the development opportunity of new infrastructure and digital economy to ensure the reasonable and orderly development of healthy city construction.