基于系统动力学的舰船装备维修保障体系演化仿真分析

Simulation analysis of warship equipment maintenance and support system evolution based on system dynamic

[目的]舰船装备维修保障体系的演化是内外因复合作用的结果,在分析其演化动力机制的基础上,依据系统动力学理论,建立舰船装备维修保障体系演化模型,仿真分析系统演化趋势及演化关键因素。[方法]在假设的基础上对模型进行量化,运用Anylogic对体系演化过程进行仿真模拟和敏感度分析。[结果]研究结果表明:舰船装备维修保障体系的演化呈现S型曲线递增趋势,演化初期增长较为缓慢,完成任务的成本较高。随着体系的不断演化,体系整体呈现出能力涌现态势。在体系演化初期需同时加大维修硬件、人员投入比例,在跃升期则需加大人员投入比例。在体系演化中后期,提高维修人员在装备研发与设计中的参与度等举措,可提高投入的边际效益、维修组织的柔性度,也将带来较大的演化收益。[结论]基于系统动力学演化仿真方法可为舰船装备维修保障体系能力评估、重点投入方向提供支持。

[Objectives]The evolution of the equipment maintenance and support system of warships is the result of internal and external factors.Based on an analysis of the evolution dynamic mechanism and system dynamics theory,an evolution model of the warship equipment maintenance and support system is established,and the evolution trends and key factors of the system are simulated and analyzed.[Methods]The model is quantified on the basis of the hypothesis,and the evolution process and sensitivity analysis of the system are carried out using the simulation tool Anylogic.[results]The results show that the evolution of the maintenance and support system of warship equipment presents an increasing trend in an S-shaped curve.At the beginning of the evolution,the scale of the system grows slowly and the cost of completing tasks is high.It is necessary to increase the proportion of maintenance hardware and personnel investment at the same time in the early stages of system evolution,then increase the proportion of personnel investment in the transition period.In the middle and late stages of system evolution,measures such as increasing the participation of maintenance personnel in equipment development and design can improve the marginal benefits of investment and flexibility of maintenance organization while also bringing greater evolution benefits.[Conclusions]This evolution simulation method based on system dynamics can provide support for the capability evaluation and key investment directions of the equipment maintenance and support system of warships.