新常态下的人力资本与经济增长--综合金融资本和创新创业的理论建模

Human Capital and Economic Growth under the New Normal:Theoretical Modeling of Comprehensive Financial Capital and Innovation and Entrepreneurship

在国内外形势的双重影响下,中国经济步入了“新常态”的阶段,放缓的经济增长步伐带来新的矛盾和挑战,经济增长模式从以往的粗放型逐渐向集约型转变,但以往的经济理论在经济新阶段都具有一定的局限性。本文使用主流宏观经济学前沿的建模方法将现有的四大经济增长理论囊括在一个综合模型中,把人力资本投资、金融资本投资、实物资本投资、创新创业活动、纳什博弈机制有机地结合在统一的分析框架下,对经济增长理论文献做出重要的概括和拓展。通过校准赋值和数值模拟,得出理论模型的基本结论:人力资本积累虽然可以通过创新和创业促进经济增长,但是其效果仍是递减的,呈现出新古典增长模型的属性。

Under the dual influence of domestic and foreign situations,China’s economy has entered the stage of“New Normal”.The slowing pace of economic growth has brought new contradictions and challenges.The pattern of economic growth changes gradually from extensive type to intensive type in the past,but the previous economic theories have certain limitations in the new stage of economy.Mainstream macroeconomics forward modeling method is used to the existing four theories of economic growth include in an integrated model.By organically combining human capital investment,financial capital investment,physical capital investment,innovation and entrepreneurship activities and Nash game mechanism under a unified analytical framework,an important summary and expansion of economic growth theory literature are made.Through calibration assignment and numerical simulation,the basic conclusion of the theoretical model is drawn.Although human capital accumulation can promote economic growth through innovation and entrepreneurship,its effect is still decreasing,showing the attributes of the neoclassical growth model.