中国粮食生产布局演变及空间机制分解:1978-2018

Evolution characteristics of grain production distribution and spatial mechanism decomposition in China from 1978 to 2018

使用集中度指数、空间重心统计法考察1978-2018年中国粮食生产布局演变特征,并基于动态空间杜宾模型对粮食生产的空间机制进行分解。结果表明:中国粮食生产集中度指数及生产重心自改革以来发生了不同程度变化,存在显著的空间溢出效应;稻谷生产重心整体向东北方向移动,玉米生产重心呈现"先向东北→再向西南→再向东北→再向西南"的周期性变化规律,小麦生产重心移动范围较小,未呈现向某一方向变动的趋势;受灾比、有效灌溉面积、化肥投入、劳动投入、人均播种面积、城镇化水平及人均GDP等因素在不同程度上影响中国粮食生产空间布局,且各因素的影响效应随时间推移呈较强的路径依赖特征。

In this paper,concentration index and gravity center were used to investigate the evolution characteristics of grain production distribution in China from 1978 to 2018,and the dynamic spatial Durbin model was used to analyze the spatial effect.The empirical results show that:the concentration index and the production center of China’s grain production had changed to different degrees since the reform and opening up,and the spatial agglomeration effect was significant.The center gravity of rice production moved to the northeast as a whole,and the center gravity of maize production presented periodic change pattern of"first to the northeast→then to the southwest→to the northeast again→to the southwest again".The spatial distribution of grain production in China was affected by disaster ratio,effective irrigation area,fertilizer input,labor input,per capital planting area,urbanization level and per capital GDP to different degrees,and the effect of each factor had strong path dependence over time.