基于区间线性规划和可逼近理想解排序法的园区型综合能源系统投资决策

Application of Interval Linear Programming and TOPSIS to InvestmentDecision on Integrated Energy System of Industrial Parks

综合能源服务作为电网企业增值服务重点开发的领域,研究其在计及不确定性因素情况下的投资决策方法,能够有效提升电网的投资效益。从综合能源投资者角度出发,提出一种基于区间线性规划和可逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)的园区型综合能源系统投资决策方法。首先,采用区间数的方式对负荷和能源价格的不确定性进行描述,构建基于区间数的综合能源系统不确定性规划模型,求解得到年综合成本和年碳排放成本;然后,综合考虑园区的经济性指标和环保性指标,选取TOPSIS法对多个投资规划方案进行排序,统筹筛选出综合经济性和环保性的最优方案。案例分析结果表明所提方法可有效辅助综合能源公司做出合理投资决策。

Integrated energy service(IES)is a key development area of value-added services for power grid enterprises.The study on the investment decision-making method with consideration of uncertain factors can effectively improve the investment benefits of power grids.From the perspective of integrated energy investors,based on interval linear programming and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)an investment decision-making method for industrial park type of integrated energy system was proposed.Firstly,the uncertainty of load and energy price was described by interval numbers to construct an interval number based uncertainty programming model for integrated energy system.Secondly,solving this model,the annual comprehensive cost and annual carbon emission cost were obtained.Thirdly,overall considering the economic index and environmental index of the industrial park,TOPSIS was chosen to rank multiple investment planning options,then planning as a whole,the optimal plan that synthesized economy and environmental protection was screened out.Case study results show that the proposed method can effectively assist the Integrated energy company to make rational investment decision.