基于贝叶斯网络时序模拟的气电耦合系统可靠性评估

Reliability Evaluation of Gas-Electric Coupling System Based on Bayesian Network Time Series Simulation

采用贝叶斯网络时序模拟的算法对气电耦合系统的可靠性进行分析与研究。首先根据贝叶斯网络的逻辑关系,针对11节点的天然气系统,建立天然气系统贝叶斯网络,计算天然气系统的可靠性指标,验证了贝叶斯网络及算法的可行性,同时根据贝叶斯网络的诊断推理性质,对比各个元件对天然气系统故障影响程度。然后,以IEEE-RBTS Bus6系统主馈线F4配电网和比利时11节点天然气网络搭建气电耦合系统,建立对应的贝叶斯网络,采用时序模拟的方法分析气电耦合系统的可靠性指标,并通过不同模式下其可靠性数据的对比,验证了气电耦合系统对可靠性指标的提升程度,并依据贝叶斯网络诊断推理识别系统可靠性的薄弱环节,为系统建设及系统检修时提供有效的参考信息。

This study resorted to Bayesian network algorithm for time-sequence simulation to analyze and probe into the reliability of the gas-electricity coupling energy system.Firstly,in line with the logical relation that underlines the Bayesian network,Bayesian network of the natural gas system was established responding an 11-node natural gas system,based on which,the reliability indicators regarding Bayesian network of the natural gas system were calculated,thereby the viability of the Bayesian algorithm was verified.Meanwhile,proceeding from the properties of the diagnostic reasoning of Bayesian network,the intensity of the impact in regards to each component on the failures of the natural gas system thereupon,by utilizing the distribution network of the main feeder F4 of IEEE-RBTS Bus6 and the Belgium 11-node natural gas network,a gas-electric coupling energy system was constructed,while the corresponding Bayesian network was established.Subsequently,the method of time-sequence simulation was applied to analyze the indicators regarding the gas-electric coupling energy system.Furthermore,with a comparison study of the reliability data under different models,the improvement of the reliability index of gas-electric coupling system was verified in addition,taking into account the weak links of the system reliability identified based on Bayesian network diagnostic reasoning,valuable reference was provided to system establishment and system maintenance.