基于GIS的水稻气象灾害风险评估——以四川广元旺苍县为例

GIS-Based Risk Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters for Rice——A Case Study of Wangcang County,Guangyuan Sichuan

为研究旺苍县水稻气象灾害风险,本研究利用1981-2017年旺苍县附近4个国家气象站和2012-2017年19个旺苍县乡镇区域站气象资料,以及4个县和35个乡镇统计年鉴数据,通过相关分析确定水稻生育期内主要气象灾害,利用自然灾害风险评估原理,综合分析孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性、承灾体暴露性以及当地防灾减灾能力,分别评估生育期内不同气象灾害风险,利用层次分析法和加权综合评价法构建水稻气象灾害评估体系,并对其进行综合风险评价.结果表明:旺苍县水稻气象灾害风险分布由西南向东北递减,高风险和次高风险区域主要分布在白水镇、尚武镇、枣林乡、嘉川镇、东河镇、柳溪乡、黄洋镇、龙凤乡、普济镇、农建乡、化龙乡、木门镇、九龙乡等西南部乡镇;低风险性区域主要分布在檬子乡、大河乡、鼓城乡、水磨乡、万山乡、五权镇、大德乡、大两乡东部等东北部地区,实际生产中要选育抗性强的水稻品种,尤其是高风险和次高风险地区,不断提高当地抵御灾害风险的能力.

In order to study the meteorological disaster risks for rice in Wangcang county of Sichuan province and provide ascientific basis for rice production management,the meteorology data of 4 national meteorological stations around Wangcang from 1981 to 2017 andof 19 regional stations of the county from 2012 to 2017,and the statistical yearbook data of 35 townships and 4 counties were used to determine the major meteorological disasters during rice growth period through correlation analysis.The principles of natural disaster risk assessment were used to comprehensively analyze sensitivity of disaster-inducing environment,disaster-causing factor risk,vulnerability and exposure of the hazard-bearing body and the local disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities and to assess the different meteorological disaster risks during the growing period of rice crop.Analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and weighted comprehensive evaluation methods were used to construct a meteorological disaster assessment system for rice.Then a comprehensive evaluation of the meteorological disaster was made forthe local rice production.The results showed that the distribution of meteorological disaster risk for rice diminished from southwest to northeast in Wangcang county.The high-risk and sub-high-risk areas were found to be distributed mainly in its southwestern townships,such as Baishui,Shangwu,Zaolin,Jiachuan,Donghe,Liuxi,Huangyang,Longfeng,Puji,Nongjian,Hualong,Mumen and Jiulong;and the townships in the northeastern region such as Mengzi,Dahe,Gucheng,Shuimo,Wanshan,Wuquan,Dade and Daliang belonged to low-risk zones.In conclusion,it is necessary to breed and cultivaterice varieties with strong resistance,especially in high-risk and moderately high-risk areas,and continuously improve the local ability to resist disaster risks in actual production.