2009—2018年沧州市传染病自动预警信息系统应用效果分析

Analysis on application effect of automatic warning information system for infectious diseases in Cangzhou City from 2009-2018

目的分析沧州市传染病自动预警信息系统应用效果,为提高沧州市预警工作质量和效率提供参考依据。方法在传染病自动预警信息系统中将2009—2018年所有预警信息导出进行分类整理,并对数据进行分析。结果 2009—2018年沧州市传染病自动预警信息系统发出传染病预警信号16 738条,10年间平均每个县(市、区)每周接受2条预警信息,涉及18个县(市、区)33种传染病,预警信息总数为16 738条,及时响应数为12 493条,及时响应率为76.64%,及时响应M(P25~P75)为1.64(0.69~6.92)h,预警阳性率为0.02%,错误预警率为0.26%。响应率达100.00%的县(市、区)有6个。2018年及时响应率最高为98.67%,2014年最低为58.15%,不同年度及时响应率比较,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=1 421.30,P<0.05),及时响应率最高的是沧县为96.11%,最低的是海兴县仅为28.03%。不同地区及时响应率比较,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=2 865.54,P<0.05),响应数前5位病种依次为其他感染性腹泻、手足口病、麻疹、流行性腮腺炎和流行性感冒,占总数的85.69%,甲、乙、丙类传染病和其他传染病及时响应率比较,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=119.16,P<0.05)。结论 2009—2018年沧州市传染病自动预警信息系统及时响应率偏低,灵敏度不够高,阳性预测值较低,错误预警存在,现有工作预警机制和预警方法有待进一步提高。

Objective To analyze the application effect of the automatic warning information system for infectious diseases in Cangzhou City,provide reference basis for improving the quality and efficiency of early warning work in Cangzhou City. Methods All the early warning information of 2009-2018 in the automatic warning information system for infectious diseases were exported and classified. And the data were analyzed. Results In 2009-2018,16 738 infectious disease warning signals were issued by the automatic warning information system for infectious diseases in Cangzhou City. In the past 10 years,each county(city,district)received 2 warning messages per week,involving 33 infectious diseases in 18 counties(cities,districts). There were totally 16 738 warning messages,12 493 were responded rapidly with the timely response rate of 76.64%. The M(P25~P75) of timely response was1.64(0.69-6.92) h. The positive of warning rate was 0.02%,and the false warning rate was 0.26%. There were six counties(cities,districts) with the response rate of 100.00%. The timely response rate in 2018 was the highest(98.67%) and in 2014 was the lowest(58.15%). The difference in the timely response rate in different years was statistically significant (χ^(2)=1421.30,P <0.05 ).The timely response rate in Cangxian County was the highest(96.11%) and in Haixing County was the lowest(28.03%). The difference in the timely response rate among different regions was statistically significant (χ^(2)=2 865.54,P<0.05). The top five diseases with the highest response number were other infectious diarrhea,hand-foot-and-mouth disease,measles,epidemic parotitis and influenza,accounting for 85.69% of the total. The difference in timely response rate was statistically significant between Class A,B,C infectious diseases and other infectious diseases (χ^(2)=119.16,P <0.05 ). Conclusion The automatic early warning information system of infectious diseases in Cangzhou City has a low timely response rate,low sensitivity,low positive predictive value,and false warning. The existing early warning mechanism and early warning method need to be further improved.