面向2035和2050:从负债型向资产型养老金转变的意义与路径

Facing 2035 and 2050:the Significance and Path of the Transition from Debt-based to Asset-based Pension

近年来中央发布的一系列文件和领导人的重要言论都一再强调要发展多支柱养老保险体系,夯实应对人口老龄化的社会财富储备。本文基于“终身财务安全”的分析框架,对未来养老金收支缺口进行估算,认为实现从当前的负债型养老金体系向资产型转变是一个解决方案。在对发达国家资产型养老金制度主要特征进行归纳,尤其在对美国资产型养老金体系实现四个转变的分析基础上,对中国负债型养老金体系存在的差距、向资产型转变可促进社会稳定和经济发展等诸多深远意义进行详细论述,提出资产型养老金作为长期资本是生产要素,可以创造社会财富,指出第一、第二、第三支柱养老金和全国社保基金四个板块在税收政策和制度设计两个方面改革的关系进行分析,认为第一支柱统账结合养老保险制度向资产型转变的抓手和关键在于扩大个人账户比例,以期重构激励相容的机制设计,第二、第三支柱的改革成功与否取决于税收政策和制度设计二者并重,全国社保的改革前途在于其功能定位的调整。

In recent years,a series of documents issued by the central government and important speeches given by leaders have repeatedly stressed the need to develop a multi-pillar pension system and consolidate the social wealth reserves to cope with the aging population.Based on the analysis framework of“Lifetime Financial Security”(LFS),this paper estimates the gap between future pension revenue and expenditure,and believes that it is a solution to realize the transformation from the current debt-based to the asset-based pension system.On the basis of summarizing the main characteristics of the asset-based pension system in developed countries,especially the analysis of the four transformations of the asset-based pension system in the United States,this paper discusses in detail the gap existing in China’s debt-based pension system and the far-reaching significance that the transformation to asset-based pension system can promote social stability and economic development.This paper points out that asset-based pension,as a long-term capital,is a factor of production,which can create social wealth.It also points out the relationship between the first,second and third pillar pension and the NSSF in the reform of tax policy and system design.It is believed that the starting point and key to the transformation of the first pillar with the combination of social pooling with individual accounts towards to the asset-based is to expand the proportion of individual accounts,so as to reconstruct the incentive compatible mechanism design.The success of the second and third pillar reform depends on both the tax policy and the system design.The future of the NSSF lies in the adjustment of its functional orientation.