节假日路网流量预测方法与实例分析

Analysis on forecast method and example of highway network traffic volume on holidays

运用科学方法对公路网节假日交通流量的趋势进行预测,是保障路网畅通运行的有效手段,在减轻路网拥堵、提高游客出游满意度、提高出行效率等方面具有重要意义。文章提出了一种趋势预测方法,计算同一节点下历年节假日日流量与年平均日交通量(AADT)之间的相关关系,根据修正后的相关关系和预测年份的年平均日交通量实现对节假日流量的趋势预测。以江苏省镇江市某节点2015年9月—2018年5月数据作为实例进行方法验证,表明该模型在节假日流量趋势预测方面具有实用性。

It is an effective way to guarantee the smooth operation of road network by forecasting the traffic flow of highway network during holidays based on scientific methods,which is of great significance in reducing road network congestion,improving tourists satisfaction and travel efficiency.In this paper,a method is proposed to calculate the relationship between the holiday daily traffic flow and the annual average daily traffic flow under the same station.The holiday flow is predicted according to the relationship and the annual average daily traffic volume of the forecast year.Taking the data in Zhenjiang,Jiangsu province from September 2015 to May 2018 as an example,the proposed method is validated,showing that the proposed model is applicable in forecasting holiday traffic.