汽油池火热辐射量化模型预测准确性分析

Study on prediction accuracy of radiant models of gasoline pool fire

分析池火热辐射半经验模型的预测精度随汽油池火油池直径的变化。运用MATLAB分析了各组合模型热辐射通量预测值与实验值之间的误差,筛选出用于预测汽油池火的热辐射通量的最优组合模型。结果表明,采用本文拟合的汽油热辐射系数ηrad能提高固体火焰模型热辐射通量的预测准确性,采用经典固体火焰模型及本文提出的热辐射系数公式的组合模型为最优组合模型。当池火直径为0.3~22.3 m时,最优组合模型的预测值与实验值的归一化均方误差低于0.05,该组合模型的预测准确度高于Mudan模型与Shokri-Beyler模型等其他半经验模型。

In this paper,the variation of the prediction accuracy of the semi-empirical model of pool fire radiation with the diameter of gasoline pool fire was analyzed.The error between the calculated radiant heat flux of each combination model and the experimental has been analyzed by MATLAB value.The optimal combination model was screened out.The result verified that the prediction accuracy of classical solid flame model can be improved by using the new formula of radiative fractionηrad presented here,and the combination of classical solid flame model and the formula of the radiative fraction presented here is optimal to predict the radiant heat flux of gasoline pool fire.When the diameter of the pool fire ranges from 0.3 to 22.3 m,the normalized mean square error between the predicted value and the experimental value is less than 0.05,the updated combination model can provide more accurate prediction than other semi-empirical models,such as Mudan model and Shokri-Beyler model.