2000—2018年环鄱阳湖生态城市群碳排放时空分异规律及影响因素分析

Spatial and Temporal Differentiation of Carbon Emissions in Urban Agglomeration around Poyang Lake from 2000 to 2018 and Its Influencing Factors

基于ODIAC公布的2000—2018年全球碳排放数据,从时间和空间两个维度对环鄱阳湖生态城市群碳排放演变规律进行探索,并开展了碳排放影响因素分析。结果表明:2000—2018年环鄱阳湖生态城市群碳排放经历了“先增后减”但整体呈现增长的变化趋势,其中2015年为重要拐点;从不同功能分区来看,七大分区碳排放占比相对稳定,增长区主要集中在南昌大都市区、新宜萍城镇群和信江河谷城市群;且2005—2018年间,环鄱阳湖生态城市群大部分地区碳排放强度均呈现明显下降。此外,研究发现,2000—2018年环鄱阳湖生态城市群碳排放在空间分布上出现明显的局部自相关,环鄱阳湖生态城市群碳排放整体由2000年的无明显中心点逐渐向“一主+三副”的中心空间分布格局转换。人口增长对环鄱阳湖生态城市群碳排放变化影响显著,且人口规模、收入水平和产业结构对区域碳排放分布呈现明显的交互增强作用。

In this paper,we utilized global carbon emissions data from 2000-2018 released by ODIAC to explore the evolution of carbon emissions in the ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake from the dimensions of time and space and analyzed the related influencing factors.The results show that from 2000 to 2018,the carbon emissions of ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake experienced“first increase and then decrease”,but the overall trend of change was increasing,among which,2015 was an important inflection point.From the perspective of different functional districts,the carbon emission proportion of the seven districts around Poyang Lake was relatively stable,and the growth areas were mainly concentrated in Nanchang metropolitan area,Xinyiping city conglomeration,and Xinjiang River Valley city agglomeration.Moreover,from 2005 to 2018,the carbon emission intensity of most areas in the ecological urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake has decreased significantly.In addition,the study found that from 2000 to 2018,the carbon emission space of the eco-urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake was obviously locally autocorrelated,and there was a gradual shift from no obvious central point to the spatial distribution pattern of“one main point+three pairs”.Population growth had a significant impact on the carbon emissions change of the eco-urban agglomeration around Poyang Lake,and the significant interaction enhancement effect was found among population,income level and the industrial structure.