流域范围内县域生态系统服务价值库兹涅茨效应研究——以钱塘江流域为例

Study on the Kuznets Effect of County Ecosystem Service Value within the Basin:Taking Qiantang River Basin as an Example

以钱塘江流域范围内的38个县域作为研究对象,检验了生态系统服务价值和经济发展水平之间的库兹涅茨效应,发现单位面积生态系统服务价值和单位面积GDP之间存在倒“N”型的曲线关系,大部分县域处于生态系统服务价值和GDP呈负相关的第一阶段。上城区1995年开始进入库兹涅茨曲线的第二阶段,2000年、2005年、2010年一直处在第二阶段的水平,滨江区在2018年进入生态系统服务价值和GDP呈正相关的第二阶段,上城区在经过第二个拐点之后,于2015年和2018年进入库兹涅茨曲线的第三阶段。最后,引入人口密度、二产占比、建成区面积三个协变量扩展库兹涅茨效应模型,发现库兹涅茨曲线没有发生明显变化,仍呈倒“N”型分布,但是达到拐点需要在更高的GDP水平上才能实现。

Taking 38 counties within the Qiantang River Basin as the research object,this paper explores whether the Kuznets effect exists between the value of ecosystem services and the level of economic development.The result finds an inverted“N”type curve relationship exists between the value of ecosystem services per unit area and GDP per unit area.Besides,most counties are in the first stage of negative correlation between ecosystem service value and GDP.More specifically,Shangcheng District entered the second stage of the Kuznets curve since 1995,and Binjiang District entered the second stage of positive correlation between ecosystem service value and GDP since 2018.However,Shangcheng District entered the third stage of the Kuznets curve since 2015 after the second inflection point.Finally,this paper introduces three covariate variables including population density,proportion of secondary production,and built-up area to extend the Kuznets effect model and finds that the Kuznets curve did not change significantly.The curve still shows an inverted“N-type”distribution,but a higher GDP level is needed to reach the inflection point.