双边关税贸易政策如何影响虚拟水贸易节水效应?

How Would Tariff Trade Policies Affect the Water Saving Effect of Virtual Water Trade?

文章首先运用贸易限制指数方法构建贸易政策约束指标,并在此基础上对我国虚拟水贸易的节水效应进行了理论分析,随后对2000—2014年双边关税贸易政策作用下中国与42个贸易伙伴国家及地区虚拟水进口及出口贸易的节水效应进行了实证检验。研究结果显示:(1)与基准情形相比,考虑双边关税贸易政策存在时,中国虚拟水贸易节水效应符合理论预期的程度平均上升了26.7%。(2)在中国所有进行虚拟水贸易的行业中,非金属矿物制品业的虚拟水贸易节水效应最低,健康社会工作行业的虚拟水贸易节水效应最高。(3)从时间变化趋势的视角看,RPM和RTRI指标对中国虚拟水贸易节水效应水平较低现象解释程度发生较多变化,而TRI和MTRI指标对中国虚拟水贸易节水效应较低现象解释程度的变化趋势较为平缓。

This article firstly uses the trade restrictiveness index to construct trade policy constraints indicators,and theoretically analyzes the water-saving effect of China’s virtual water trade on the basis of considering the bilateral tariff trade policy constraints indicators,and then empirically testes how the bilateral tariff trade policy will affect the watersaving effects of virtual water import and export trade of China.The research conclusions show that:(1)Compared with the benchmark situation,the extent to which China’s virtual water trade water-saving effect which is in line with theoretical expectations has increased by an average of 26.7%.(2)Among all industries that conduct virtual water trade in China,the non-metallic mineral products industry has the lowest water saving effect;the healthy social work industry has the highest water saving effect.(3)From the perspective of time trends,the RPM and RTRI indicators have a higher degree of change in the water saving effect of China’s virtual water trade,while the TRI and MTRI indicators have a lower degree of change in the water saving effect of China’s virtual water trade.