环境规制、新型城镇化与区域经济增长——基于我国30省份空间杜宾模型的实证研究

Environmental Regulation,New-type Urbanization and Regional Economic Growth:An Empirical Study Based on Spatial Durbin Model of 30 Provinces in China

利用我国2009—2017的省级面板数据,结合全局莫兰指数及局部莫兰指数散点图,构建空间杜宾模型分析环境规制、新型城镇化及其二者交互项对区域经济增长的本地效应及空间溢出效应。研究发现:从本地效应来看,环境规制的实施带来的绿色技术创新无法弥补治理污染成本的上升,但新型城镇化的建设使资源合理再分配,促进本省经济增长,二者交互对本省经济增长亦呈现出正向作用;从空间溢出效应来看,环境规制、新型城镇化分别对邻省经济增长具有正向作用,但由于竞争效应的存在,二者交互对邻省经济增长的效应为负。基于此,政府应鼓励企业进行绿色技术研发并支持新型产业发展,引导新型城镇化往智能化方向发展,探索环境规制与新型城镇化的融合发展之路。

By using China’s panel data from 2009 to 2017 and combining global Moran index and local Moran index scatter plots,a spatial Durbin model is constructed to analyze the local effects and spatial spillover effects of environmental regulation,new-type of urbanization and their interactions on regional economic growth.The results show that:from the perspective of local effect,the green technology innovation brought by the implementation of environmental regulations cannot make up for the rising cost of pollution control,but the construction of new urbanization makes the reasonable redistribution of resources and promotes the economic growth of this province.The interaction between the two also presents a positive effect on the economic growth of this province.From the perspective of spatial spillover effect,environmental regulation and new-type urbanization have positive effects on the economic growth of neighboring provinces respectively,but due to the existence of competition effect,their interaction has negative effects on the economic growth of neighboring provinces.Based on this,the government should encourage enterprises to carry out green technology research and development,support the development of new industries,guide the new urbanization to the direction of intelligent development,and explore the road of integrated development of environmental regulation and new urbanization.