基于系统动力学的新能源汽车推广使用对城市货运的影响

The Influence of Promotion of New Energy Vehicles on Urban Freight Transportation Based on System Dynamics

针对城市货运问题,通过分析新能源汽车推广使用与城市货运之间的关系,运用系统动力学理论,构建了新能源汽车推广使用对城市货运影响的系统动力学模型。从取消对新能源汽车消费者补贴、实施新能源汽车废旧电池回收政策、加强充电基础设施建设三个方面进行研究,比较新能源货车比重、城市货运NO_(2)排放量的变化。研究结果表明:目前取消或者降低新能源汽车消费者财政补贴会降低新能源汽车对消费者的吸引力,在目前财政补贴退坡的情况下,政府应该采取其他有效措施来促进新能源汽车的推广使用,从而减少城市货运问题;实施废旧电池回收政策和加强充电基础设施建设能够促进新能源汽车的推广使用,进而减少城市货运问题。

Aim at the problem of city freight,the relationship between the promotion and use of new energy vehicles and urban freight transport is analyzed,the theory of system dynamics is applied,the system dynamics model of the influence of new energy vehicles on urban freight transportation is established.This study is conducted from the following three aspects for new energy vehicles:abolishing consumer subsidies,implementing the policy of recycling used batteries,and strengthening the construction of charging infrastructure.The results show that the attractiveness of new energy vehicles to consumers will be reduced with the cancellation or reduction of consumer financial subsidies for new energy vehicles.In order to reduce the problem of urban freight transportation,the effective measures should be taken by the government to promote the promotion and use of new energy vehicles under the current situation of financial subsidies regression.It will promote the promotion and use of new energy vehicles to solve the problem of urban freight transport by implementing the policy of waste battery recycling and strengthening the construction of charging infrastructure.