宁夏海原县1958—2019年气温及降水变化规律分析

Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Variation Laws between 1958 and 2019 in Haiyuan County of Ningxia

对海原气象站1958—2019年年际、年内平均气温和降水量采用线性倾向估计法、M-K突变检验法和累积距平法进行计算分析。结果表明:海原站年、春季、夏季、秋季、冬季平均气温递增速率分别为0.27、0.32、0.25、0.27、0.24℃/10 a,均只发生一次突变。年降水量变化速率为-1.67 mm/10 a,1959—1960年发生突变。春季、夏季、秋季、冬季降水量变化速率分别为0.69、-0.92、-2.47、1.03 mm/10 a,分别发生突变13、5、4、4次,2012—2019年降水量呈上升趋势。建议海原县强化水利工程保障,充分利用调蓄水工程,结合天气预报,对各类水资源进行联调联供,从而保障海原县的农业生产。

The interannual average temperature and precipitation,and average temperature and precipitation during the year were calculated and analyzed between 1958 and 2019 in Haiyuan meteorological station by linear tendency estimation method,M-K mutation test method and the cumulative anomaly method.The results indicated that the annual and seasonal average temperature increase rates were 0.27,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.24℃/10 a,with only a mutation.The annual precipitation change rate was-1.67 mm/10 a with mutations between 1959 and 1960.The seasonal precipitation change rates were 0.69,-0.92,-2.47 and 1.03 mm/10 a,with 13,5,4 and 4 times mutations.The precipitation showed a trend of increase between 2012 and 2019.Some suggestions have been proposed to ensure agricultural production in Haiyuan County,including strengthening water conservancy projects,making the most of water diversion and storage projects,integrating diversion and supply of various water resources based on weather forecast.