战略意图认知、信号与中美战略竞争

Perception of Strategic Intentions,Signals and Sino-US Strategic Competition

随着中国经济实力的不断增长,中美关系的竞争性日益增加。中美关系是中美双方战略互动的结果,为此本文尝试从双变量视角分析两国关系,并提出美国对中国战略意图的认知与中国在特定议题上向美国传递的信号类型这两个因素共同决定了中美战略竞争的走势。当美国对中国战略意图的认知是良性且中国向美国发出合作信号时,双方战略竞争态势缓和。当美国对中国战略意图的认知是敌对且中国向美国发出非合作信号时,双方将处于高烈度竞争状态。为了管控中美关系中的竞争性,中国需要在美国认知形成过程中进行引导。

As China’s economic strength continues to grow,the relationship between China and the United States has become increasingly competitive. The relationship between China and the United States is the result of Sino-US strategic interaction. Therefore,this paper attempts to analyze the Sino-US relations from a bivariate perspective,and stresses that perception of the United States for China’s strategic intentions and the types of signals China sends to the United States on specific issues determined the tendency of Sina-US strategic competition. When perception of the United States for China’s strategic intentions is benign and China sends signals of cooperation to the United States,the strategic competition between the two sides will ease. When perception of the United States for China’s strategic intentions is hostile and China gives signals of non-cooperation to the United States,the two sides will be in a state of high-intensity competition. In order to manage the competition in the Sino-US relationship,China needs to set the pace in the formation process of perception of the United States.