我国水泥在东南亚国家的投资环境对比研究

Comparative Study on Investment Environment of China's Cement in Southeast Asian Countries

针对我国水泥产业产能过剩、供需不平衡等问题,运用灰色预测和模糊综合评价等方法,选取《2019全球竞争力报告》中的指标数据,以东南亚市场为例,构建未来两年我国水泥出口的国际市场需求量灰色预测模型,以及东南亚五国水泥投资市场的模糊综合评价模型,综合运用MATLAB等软件编程求解,并进行相关参数和模型的检验。研究表明:未来两年内,菲律宾和缅甸对我国水泥需求量增加,而越南、老挝和新加坡对我国水泥需求量将下降,新加坡、印度尼西亚和菲律宾等地具有良好的投资环境。

Aiming at the problems of overcapacity and imbalance between supply and demand in China's cement industry,this paper uses grey forecasting and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods,and selects the index data in the"2019 Global Competitiveness Report"for analysis.Taking the Southeast Asian market as an example,this paper constructs a gray forecast model of China's cement export demand in the international market and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of cement investment markets in fi ve Southeast Asian countries in the next two years,and comprehensively uses MATLAB and other software programming to test related parameters and models.Research shows that in the next two years,the Philippines and Myanmar will increase their demand for Chinese cement,while Vietnam,Laos,and Singapore will decrease their demand for Chinese cement.Singapore,Indonesia,and the Philippines will have a good investment environment.