区域水–能源–粮食关联性供需测度及可持续发展综合评估

Supply and Demand Measurement and Comprehensive Assessment of Sustainable Development of Regional Water-energy-food Nexus

使社会朝着更加可持续方向发展的挑战是巨大而紧迫的,作为区域发展的三大关键资源:水资源、能源和粮食资源关系密切,增进对三者复杂相互作用关联关系的理解是区域可持续发展和决策的重中之重。基于水–能源–粮食关联性,建立了资源交互分析框架和区域可持续发展综合评价模型,定量分析和评估了某高新区2020、2025及2030年的资源供需状况和综合发展水平。结果表明:研究区3个情景的综合可持续发展水平总体呈上升趋势,但并没有达到良好的稳定协调状态,尤其是资源协调性有待改善。适当调整能源供应和发电结构对协调经济发展和环境保护至关重要,建议加强3个部门之间的合作,提高资源的管理和利用效率,以实现最佳的水–能源–粮食管理,为促进区域和社会的可持续发展提供决策支持。

The challenge of making society more sustainable is huge and urgent.As the three key resources for regional development,water,energy and food(WEF)are closely linked.Improving the understanding of WEF nexus is the top priority of regional sustainable development and decision-making.Based on WEF nexus,this paper establishes a resource interaction analysis framework and a comprehensive assessment model for regional development,and quantitatively analyses and assesses the WEF supply and demand status and comprehensive development level of a high-tech zone in 2020,2025 and 2030.The results show that:the comprehensive development level of the three scenarios in study area has gradually increased as a whole,but it has not reached a good stable and coordinated state,especially the coordination of resources needs to be improved.Appropriate adjustment of energy supply and power generation structure is essential to coordinate economic development and environmental protection.It is recommended to strengthen the cooperation between the WEF departments,improve the efficiency of resource utilization,so as to achieve the best water-energy-food management,and provide decision-making support for promoting the sustainable development of the region and society.