张家港市水痘发病与季节气象因素相关性分析

Correlation analysis on seasonal and meteorological factors and chickenpox incidence grouped by seasons in Zhangjiagang

目的了解张家港市2018年水痘发病和同期气象因素监测情况,探讨不同季节影响其发病的主要气象因素,为有针对性地制定水痘防控措施提供理论依据。方法收集张家港市2018年每日水痘发病资料和同期气象资料,对水痘发病数进行滞后0~21 d的调整,首先利用Spearman相关分析张家港市不同季节主要气象因素与水痘发病数的相关性,然后采用多元逐步回归方法分析计算出不同季节影响水痘发病的主要气象因素。结果张家港市水痘发病的时间分布有明显季节性,有秋末冬季和春末夏初两个高峰;平均气温在春、夏、秋、冬季节均是影响水痘发病的主要因素,气温与水痘发病数在春季和冬季呈正相关,在夏季和秋季呈负相关;平均日照时数在春、夏和冬季是影响张家港市水痘发病的因子之一,均与发病数呈负相关;平均相对湿度影响秋季水痘发病,与发病数呈正相关;平均气压仅在冬季对水痘发病数有正相关的影响。结论在不同季节,同一种气象因素对水痘发病会有正相关或负相关两种不同的影响,在水痘防制工作中应充分考虑不同季节气象因素对水痘发病的影响,采取综合性防控措施。

Objective To explore the incidence of chickenpox and seasonal and meteorological factors in the same period in Zhangjiagang in 2018,to investigate its main meteorological factors,and to provide theoretical basis for formulating targeted prevention and control measures for chickenpox.Methods The daily data of chickenpox cases in Zhangjiagang in 2018 and meteorological data during this period were collected,and the incidence of chickenpox was adjusted by lagging 0-21 days.Firstly Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation of main meteorological factors and chickenpox cases in different seasons in Zhangjiagang,and then mutiple stepwise regression was used to find out major meteorological factors influencing the incidence of chickenpox.Results Significant seasonal variation was found in the time distribution of chickenpox onset in Zhangjiagang with two peaks in late autumn and winter,late spring and early summer.The average temperature in spring,summer,autumn and winter was main factor influencing the incidence of chickenpox,and the temperature was positively correlated with varicella incidence in spring and winter and negatively correlated in summer and autumn.Average sunshine hours in spring,summer and winter were one of factors influencing the incidence of chickenpox,and such sunshine hours were negatively correlated to incident number.Average relative humidity influenced the incidence in the autumn and was positively correlated to the incidence number.Average air pressure is merely positive correlated to the incidence of chickenpox in the winter.Conclusion The same meteorological factors in different seasons show two different effects including positive or negative correlation with the incidence of chickenpox.In the work of preventing chickenpox,it’s suggested that comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken by considering the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of chickenpox.