2008—2018年4省重点地区去胃癌死因期望寿命分析

Analysis of life expectancy after elimination of gastric cancer in key areas of four provinces from 2008 to 2018

目的探讨2008—2018年4省重点地区人群期望寿命以及胃癌对期望寿命影响程度的变化情况,为评估该地区综合防控效果提供依据。方法死亡以及人口数据来源于中国疾病预防控制中心全国死因监测数据库中4省重点地区2008—2018年死因数据。使用SAS 9.4软件进行统计分析,采用期望寿命和去死因期望寿命增长年(PGLEs)指标分析2008—2018年该地区人群健康水平及胃癌对期望寿命影响程度的变化情况,采用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.2软件计算年度变化百分比(APC),采用对数线性回归法计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)来评价期望寿命和胃癌PGLEs的时间变化趋势。结果 2008—2018年4省重点地区人群期望寿命呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.5%,P<0.05),由2008年的75.22岁上升到2018年的79.16岁,增长3.94岁。男性增长3.67岁,女性增长4.17岁。其中蒙城县期望寿命增长幅度最大,为5.37岁。胃癌的PGLEs呈下降趋势(AAPC=-1.9%,P<0.05),由2008年的0.39岁下降到2018年的0.31岁。男性下降了0.09岁,女性下降了0.07岁。其中射阳县变化最为明显,下降幅度为53.8%。结论 2008—2018年4省重点地区人群期望寿命逐渐提高,胃癌对期望寿命的影响逐渐减少。

Objective To explore the changes of life expectancy and the effect of gastric cancer on life expectancy in key areas of four provinces from 2008 to 2018,and to provide the basis for evaluating the effects of comprehensive prevention and control in this area. Methods The death data and demographic data were from surveillance data for all causes of death in key areas of four provinces from 2008 to 2018. The indicators of life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy(PGLEs) were used to analyze the health level and the effects of gastric cancer on life expectancy in this area from 2008 to 2018. The annual percentage change(APC) was calculated with Joinpoint Regression Program 4.2 software and the average annual percentage change(AAPC) was calculated with logarithmic linear regression analysis for evaluating the time change trend of life expectancy and gastric cancer PGLEs. The used software was SAS 9.4. Results The life expectancy in key areas of four provinces from 2008 to 2018 showed the increased trend(AAPC=0.5%,P<0.05),the life expectancy increased from 75.22 years in 2008 to 79.16 years in 2018,increasing by 3.94 years(males:3.67 years,females:4.17 years). The increase of life expectancy in Mengcheng county was the largest(5.37 years). The PGLEs of gastric cancer showed the decreased trend(AAPC =-1.9%,P<0.05),which decreased from 0.39 year in 2008 to 0.31 year in 2018(males:-0.09 year;females:-0.07 year). The life expectancy change of Sheyang county showed the most significant(-53.8%). Conclusion From 2008 to 2018,the life expectancy in key areas of four provinces increased gradually,and the effect of gastric cancer on life expectancy decreased gradually.