农产品贸易开放减少农村贫困了吗?--基于空间溢出效应的视角

Is Agricultural Trade Opening to Reduce Rural Poverty?--From the Perspective of Spatial Spillover Effect

基于2002—2013年中国大陆30个省份的面板数据,利用实际交通时间设定经济距离权重矩阵,通过空间Durbin模型实证研究农产品贸易开放对农村减贫的直接影响和空间溢出效应,进一步采用门槛面板回归模型识别农产品贸易开放减贫效应的门槛特征。研究发现:(1)农产品贸易开放对农村减贫有正向显著的直接影响和空间溢出效应,传统上未考虑空间溢出效应的模型设定,低估了农产品贸易开放对农村减贫的总体效应;(2)农产品进口贸易开放的直接影响与空间溢出效应远大于出口贸易开放;(3)农产品贸易开放对农村减贫的空间溢出效应并未产生随距离衰减效应,反而形成规模效应强化了减贫效应;(4)农产品贸易开放对农村减贫具有明显的门槛效应,减贫弹性随着农产品贸易开放水平的提高而降低。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China's Mainland from 2002 to 2013,using the actual traffic time to construct the economic distance weight matrix,this paper empirically studies the direct and spillover effect of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction with the spatial Durbin model,adopting the threshold panel regression model to identify the threshold characteristics of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction.The results show that:(1)Agricultural products trade opening has a significant positive direct and spatial spillover effect on rural poverty reduction.And the traditional model without considering the spatial spillover effect obviously underestimates the total effect of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction.(2)The direct and spillover effect of agricultural import trade opening on rural poverty reduction are much greater than the opening of export trade.(3)With the expansion of geographical distance,the spatial spillover effect of agricultural products trade opening on rural poverty reduction will not decrease,instead,the scale effect is formed to improve the influence of rural poverty reduction.(4)Agricultural products trade opening also has a significant threshold effect on rural poverty reduction,and with the increasing of agricultural products trade opening level,the elasticity of rural poverty reduction presents a trend of decreasing.