经济政策不确定性对企业投资的影响--基于投资者情绪的中介效应

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Investment--Based on the Mediating Effect of Investor Sentiment

社会重大突发公共事件往往会加剧经济政策的不确定性。近年来的研究表明,经济政策的不确定性会显著改变企业面临的系统性风险,并通过作用于经济主体的预期来影响企业的投资规模和效率,然而面对不同经济状况和非理性的投资者情绪,经济政策不确定性的传导路径和效应尚需深入研究。本文采用2003—2016年中国A股上市公司的年度面板数据,以2008年金融危机发生的节点将数据区分经济上行(2003—2007年)和下行(2008—2016年)两个阶段。研究发现在经济下行阶段,经济政策不确定性与企业投资规模显著负相关,投资者情绪带来了31%的投资规模总效用。具体而言,高换手率、低流通市值、高成长性、小规模企业,其投资者情绪的中介作用更强。本文的研究将对在受疫情冲击加剧下行的经济状态下,如何兼顾投资者情绪的传导作用、合理有效调整经济政策提供经验依据。

Major public emergencies often exacerbate economic policy uncertainty.Recent studies have shown that the uncertainty of economic policies can significantly change the systemic risks faced by enterprises,and affect the investment scale and efficiency of enterprises by acting on the expectations of economic subjects.However,in the face of different economic conditions and irrational investor sentiment,the transmission path and effect of economic policy uncertainty still need to be further studied.In this paper,the annual panel data of China’s A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2016 were used to distinguish the data in the two stages of economic upturn(2003-2007)and downturn(2008-2016)according to the nodes of the 2008 financial crisis.The regression method was used to study and find that in the economic downturn stage,the uncertainty of economic policies was significantly negatively correlated with the investment scale of enterprises,and investor sentiment brought 31%of the total utility of investment scale.In depth research shows that investor sentiment has the strongest intermediary effect on high turnover rate enterprises,low circulation market value enterprises,high growth enterprises and small scale enterprises.The uncertainty of economic policies improves the investment efficiency of enterprises.The study of this paper will provide empirical evidence for how to take into account the transmission effect of investor sentiment and adjust economic policies reasonably and effectively under the economic state of worsening by the impact of the epidemic.