谁在种地?--农村居民生产经营选择的影响因素分析

Who Are Engaged in Agriculture:The Determinants on Rural Residents’Working Choices

近年来,工业化和城镇化的推进引发了农业劳动人口向非农部门的大规模转移,引起了社会各界对于我国农业可持续性的担忧。为深入理清当前影响农村居民生产选择的决定因素,本文利用中国乡村调查项目组于2018年进行的抽样调查数据,基于排序Probit模型框架进行了分析。研究发现:当前我国农业劳动力呈现出"老龄化"和"低学历化"的趋势;新型农业生产模式的作用存在差异,专业合作社有助于提高农村居民务农的概率,但专业化龙头企业和订单农业的作用尚不明显。更为严峻的是,虽然农业长期向好的趋势已深入人心,但当代农民望其子女从事农业生产的意愿较弱。这意味着,农业劳动力不足不仅是短期亟待解决的问题,更有向长期问题转化的趋势。

The progress of industrialization and urbanization has induced the transfer of rural labor force from farm sector to non-farm sector;hence,raising a concern on the sustainability of China’s agricultural industry.To clearly understand the current determinants on rural labors’working choices,we utilize a survey conducted by China Central National Radio in 2018.Drawn on the survey data and the ordered Probit model,we find that the current rural labors engaged in agriculture are elder and less-educated than their counterparts in other sectors.Moreover,new modes of agricultural production have different effects on rural labors’choices-specialized cooperatives increased the probability of their members towards farming,while the modes of specialized leading enterprises and contracting farming did not.Additionally,despite that rural residents believed a promising future of agricultural industry,the majority of them did not wish their children to be engaged in farming.As such,the shortage of rural labor force is not only a short-term problem,but might also be a long-term one.