降费背景下经济增长与养老金待遇不降低能同步实现吗——基于OLG模型的研究

Can Economic Growth and Pension Benefits not be Reduced Simultaneously in the Context of Fee Reductions—Based on OLG Model Research

本文以统账结合模式的城镇职工基本养老保险制度为基础,运用世代交叠模型,引入公共教育税率要素,研究降费政策下中国如何同步实现经济增长和养老金待遇水平不降低的双重目标。研究结果显示,降低养老保险统筹账户缴费率确实能促进经济增长,但会引起基础养老金替代率与个人账户养老金替代率下降。在经济增长率和基础养老金替代率实现最优水平的条件下,统筹账户缴费率与公共教育税率存在此消彼长的稳定关系。这表明,在降费的宏观背景下,增加公共教育投入可以在一定程度上弥补养老金替代率水平下降引起的福利损失。此做法既能确保经济增长与基础养老金待遇不降低,也能同时保证个人账户养老金待遇不降低。

Based on the basic pension insurance system for urban employees with the combination of pooling and accounting,this paper uses the overlapping generation model and introduces the element of public education tax rate to study how to achieve the dual goals of Chinese economic growth and the undiminished level of pension benefits under the fee reduction policy.The research results show that reducing the contribution rate of the pension insurance pooling account can indeed promote economic growth,but it will cause the basic pension replacement rate and the personal account pension replacement rate to decline.Under the condition of optimal economic growth rate and basic pension replacement rate,there is a trade-off relationship between the contribution rate of pooling account and the tax rate of public education.This result means under the macro background of fee reduction,increasing public education investment can make up for the welfare loss caused by the decline of pension replacement rate to some extent.This approach can not only ensure that the economy keeps growing and the basic pension benefits will not be reduced,but also ensure that the personal account pension benefits will not be reduced.