新旧动能转换阶段山东省旅游发展动力研究

Research on the Momentum of Tourism Development in Shandong Province in the Phase of the Conversion of New and Old Kinetic Energy

在新旧动能转换背景下,山东省旅游发展面临动能转换问题,依据旅游生命周期理论,运用logistic模型定量地将山东旅游划分为前期铺垫、初步发展、快速发展、新旧动能过渡、新动能发展阶段五个阶段,识别出目前山东旅游所处阶段,建立了山东旅游动力系统,根据动力系统从供给侧角度选取6个要素指标,使用柯布道格拉斯生产函数对山东省2009-2018年面板数据进行固定效应和分位数回归方法,分析出山东旅游发展现阶段旅游动力现状和趋势,据此对现阶段山东旅游发展提出对策和建议。

Under the background of new and old kinetic energy conversion,Shandong tourism development is facing the problem of kinetic energy conversion.Based on the tourism life cycle theory,the logistic model is used to quantitatively divide Shandong tourism into early stage development,preliminary development,rapid development,new and old kinetic energy transition,new kinetic energy development in five stages,the current stage of Shandong tourism was identified,and establish tourism power system of Shandong.According to the power system,6 element indicators were selected from the supply side perspective,and the Cobb Douglas production function was used to perform panel data for Shandong Province from 2009 to 2018.The fixed effect and quantile regression methods are used to analyze the current status and trends of tourism dynamics in Shandong tourism development.Based on this,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for Shandong tourism development at this stage.