考虑模糊区间的水库群优化调度决策方法

Decision method of optimal operation of reservoir group considering fuzzy interval

为有效解决多目标决策中存在的不确定性问题,提出考虑主客观因素模糊区间的综合赋权方法。首先利用模糊层次分析法确定反映决策者主观偏好的主观权重,其次引入区间数的相离度概念提取客观决策信息,最后利用基于博弈论的综合赋权方法确定综合权重,并根据综合权重选出最佳调度方案。该方法在金沙江下游梯级水库群多目标优化调度中的应用结果表明:综合的赋权法在多目标调度方案优选中具有可行性,综合权重选出的调度方案能同时体现决策者偏好和各指标客观特征,所选方案在各指标上表现均衡,为流域水资源多目标综合调度决策提供了新的思路。

To effectively solve the uncertainty problems in the multi-objective decision-making,a comprehensive weighting method considering the fuzzy interval of subjective and objective factors is proposed in this study.The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)was used to determine the subjective weight reflecting the subjective preference of decision makers,and the concept of distance degree of interval number was introduced to extract objective decision information.Then,with an improved comprehensive weighting method based on the game theory,the comprehensive weighting value is determined,and in accordance with this,the scheduling scheme is optimized.The method is applied to the multi-objective optimal scheduling of cascade reservoirs in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River,and the results show that the comprehensive weighting method is feasible in the multi-objective scheduling scheme optimization.The scheduling scheme selected by the comprehensive weight can simultaneously reflect the preference of decision makers and the objective characteristics of each index and has a balanced performance on all indicators.This method provides a new idea for the multi-objective comprehensive operation decision-making of water resources in the basin.