灰色预测模型在材料价格预测中的应用

Application of grey forecast model in material price forecast

由于通货膨胀导致材料价格有所增长,施工单位在投标报价过程中需要承担材料价格波动所带来的风险。为了既能成功中标又尽可能多地为企业带来盈利,投标策略的选择以及投标报价的金额往往是起着决定性作用。文章通过建立灰色预测模型短期预测未来材料价格,从而为施工单位的投标报价提供数据上的依据,对投标报价的金额起着指导性作用,同时为施工过程中进行成本管理提供了有利的依据。通过实际例子,验证该模型的预测效果较好。

Due to the increase of material price caused by inflation,the construction unit should bear the risk of material price fluctuation in the bidding process.In order to win the bid successfully and bring profit to the enterprise as much as possible,the choice of bid strategy and the amount of bid quotation often play a decisive role.In this paper,the grey forecast model is established to forecast the future material price in the short term,so as to provide the data basis for the bid price of the construction unit,play a guiding role for the amount of bid price,and provide a favorable basis for cost management in the construction process.A practical example shows that the prediction effect of the model is good.