增加值贸易下中国的出口效率及其影响因素研究

China’s Export Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors:Evidence from Trade in Value Added

在生产网络全球化背景下,中国的出口效率和增长潜力有必要利用增加值贸易数据进行重新评估。本文在利用世界投入产出表(WIOT)来测算1995—2016年39个国家间的双边增加值出口数据的基础上,利用随机前沿引力模型对中国出口效率及其影响因素加以分析。研究发现:中国增加值总体出口效率值在0.5—0.7之间,出口潜力巨大;各行业间出口效率存在显著差异,非制造工业的增加值出口效率高达0.9左右,制造业工业与总体出口效率水平相当,而农林牧渔业和服务业出口效率均明显低于总体出口效率的平均水平;出口效率影响因素结果显示,传统贸易制约因素的作用在逐渐弱化,贸易环境的政治民主度和贸易自由度等人为因素成为影响出口效率的决定性因素。

The emergence of global supply chains prompts us to reevaluate China’s export efficiency and growth potential using value-added data.The author firstly calculates bilateral value-added export data of 39 countries between 1995 and 2016 using the World Input-Output Table(WIOT),and then uses the result and the stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate China’s export efficiency and its influencing factors.It is found that China’s value-added export efficiency falls between 0.5 and 0.7,which means China still has plenty of export potential.However,China’s export efficiency varies across sectors,with value-added export efficiency of non-manufacturing industries as high as about 0.9,that of manufacturing industries at a level comparable to the overall export efficiency,while that of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery and service industries are significantly lower than the average.Furthermore,the results of the factors influencing export efficiency show that the role of traditional trade constraints is gradually weakening,and human factors such as political democracy and trade freedom,which reflect the trade environment,have become decisive factors.