陕西省新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例空间流行病学特征及影响因素

Spatial epidemiology characteristics and influencing factors of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Shaanxi Province

目的描述陕西省COVID-19确诊病例的空间流行病学特征,分析其相关因素,为陕西省新型冠状病毒肺炎的防控工作的开展提供参考依据。方法收集陕西省COVID-19确诊病例信息及相关社会经济学数据,分析确诊病例的时间及空间分布特征,采用广义线性模型探索人群COVID-19发病与社会经济因素之间的关联。结果2020年1月23日,陕西省首次报告4例,2月4日新增确诊病例最高达23例,2月19日后再无新增。输入型病例比本地病例更早出现并达到新增高峰,且更早进入归零期。空间分析结果显示,确诊病例数最多的地市为西安市(120例),占总数的48.98%,确诊病例较多的区县为莲湖区、雁塔区、新城区和未央区。与各区县确诊病例数相关的社会经济学因素为教育支出(IRR=0.287,95%CI:0.134~0.612)、人均生产总值(IRR=1.143,95%CI:1.049~1.245)及各区县与武汉市的距离(IRR=0.995,95%CI:0.992~0.998)。结论应针对重点地区和人群在疫情出现早期积极采取相应的措施,及早控制疫情的发展蔓延。

Objective To describe the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in Shaanxi Province and further explore its relevant factors,so as to provide evidence for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in Shaanxi Province.Methods The information of confirmed COVID-19 cases and relevant socioeconomic data in Shaanxi Province were collected.The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of confirmed cases,and the correlation between the incidence of COVID-19 and socioeconomic factors in the population were analyzed by using a generalized linear model.Results Four cases were first reported in Shaanxi on 23 January 2020,with the highest number of new confirmed cases reaching 23 on 4 February and no new cases after 19 February.The imported cases appeared earlier and reached the new peak than the local cases,and entered the zero stage earlier than the local cases.The spatial distribution showed that Xi′an(120 cases)had the largest number of confirmed cases,accounting for 48.98%of the total cases,and the districts with more confirmed cases were in Lianhu,Yanta,Xincheng and Weiyang.Socioeconomic factors which significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases in each district and country were education expenditure(IRR=0.287,95%CI:0.134-0.612),GDP per capita(IRR=1.143,95%CI:1.049-1.245)and the distance from Wuhan(IRR=0.995,95%CI:0.992-0.998).Conclusion Measures should be taken in key areas and population at the early stage of the epidemic to control the spread of the epidemic as soon as possible.