湖南省气温对新型冠状病毒肺炎发病数的滞后影响

Lag effect of temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province

目的研究湖南省日均气温对COVID-19日发病数的滞后影响,为疫情的有效防控提供科学依据。方法本研究对2020年1月21日―2020年3月2日湖南省气象因素和空气质量因素与COVID-19日发病数进行Spearman相关分析和分布滞后非线性模型分析。结果观察期间,湖南省新型冠状病毒肺炎报告新发病例共1018例。分布滞后非线性模型结果显示,日均气温与COVID-19日发病数的关系呈非线性,累积发病风险随气温的升高而降低,且发病人群的气温风险最低点为0℃。高温对日发病数的影响为短期即时效应,低温对每日发病人数的影响具有滞后性,滞后效应长达12 d,当日均温为-5℃,滞后天数为8 d时,相对危险度最高(RR=2.20,95%CI=1.16~4.19),且高温(10℃)较低温(6℃)影响更为显著。结论气温是影响湖南省COVID-19发病的因素,且有滞后性;高温和低温均可导致发病风险升高,应针对脆弱人群和危重患者加强防护措施从而降低发病风险。

Objective To explore the lag effect of daily average temperature on the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Hunan Province and to provide scientific evidences for effective prevention of COVID-19.Methods The meteorological factors,the air quality factors and the data conincidence of COVID-19 reported in Hunan Province during January 21,2020 to March 2,2020 were collected.Spearman correlation and distributed lag non-linear model analysis were performed.Results A total of 1018 COVID-19 cases were reported in Hunan Province.The distribution lag non-linear model results showed that the influence of daily average temperature on the incidence of COVID-19 presented a nonlinear relationship.The cumulative relative incidence risk of COVID-19 decreased with the increase of daily average temperature,and the lowest temperature risk of the patients was 0℃.Both cold temperature and hot temperature increased incidence risk of COVID-19.It was indicated that the hot effects were immediate,however,the cold effects with obvious lag effect persisted up to 12 days.The highest relative risk of COVID-19 incidence was associated with lag 8-day daily average temperature of-5℃(RR=2.20,95%CI=1.16-4.19).The influence of high temperature(10℃)was more significant than that of low temperature(6℃).Conclusion The daily average temperature,especially cold or hot temperature,was an important influencing factor of the incidence of COVID-19 in Hunan Province,which had lag influence on the incidence of COVID-19.We suggested that some related preventive measures should be adopted to protect vulnerable population and severe patients to reduce the incidence risk.