上海市宝山区登革热媒介白纹伊蚊密度指数与气象因素的关系

Study on the associations of density indexes of Aedes albopictus for dengue with meteorological factors in Baoshan District of Shanghai

目的分析上海市宝山区气象因素对媒介白纹伊蚊密度指数的影响,及其在登革热等蚊媒传染病防控中的应用。方法收集上海市宝山区2019年4月―2019年10月白纹伊蚊监测数据资料及同期的气象数据资料,采用广义可加模型(generalized additive model,GAM)的方法进行分析。结果白纹伊蚊密度指数夏秋季高于冬春季。GAM结果显示,日平均气温与停落指数对数(F=27.64,P<0.001)、布雷图指数(Breteau Index,BI)对数(F=24.75,P<0.001)、诱蚊诱卵器指数(mosq-ovitrap index,MOI)对数(F=101.56,P<0.001)呈线性正相关;日累计雨量与幼蚊MOI对数呈线性正相关(F=14.73,P<0.001),与成蚊帐诱指数对数呈非线性关系(P<0.001)。结论气温及降雨量为影响上海市宝山区白纹伊蚊分布的主要气象因素,科学有效的媒介蚊虫监测,利用气象与蚊虫消长之间相关性进行预测,可为白纹伊蚊传播疾病的早期预警、风险评估及科学防控等工作奠定基础。

Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the density indexes of Aedes albopictus in Baoshan District of Shanghai,and its application in the prevention and control of dengue fever and other mosquito-borne infectious diseases.Methods The monitoring data and meteorological data on Aedes albopictus in Baoshan District of Shanghai City from April 2019 to October 2019 were collected,and the generalized additive model(GAM)was used for analysis.Results The density index of Aedes albopictus in summer and autumn were higher than that in winter and spring.Results from GAM indicated that the daily average temperature was positively associated with the logarithm of perched index(F=27.64,P<0.001),the logarithm of Breteau Index(BI)(F=24.75,P<0.001),and the logarithm of mosq-ovitrap index(MOI)(F=101.56,P<0.001);the daily cumulative precipitation was positively associated with the logarithm of the MOI(F=14.73,P<0.001),and was non-linearly associated with the logarithm of net trap index(P<0.001).Conclusion Temperature and precipitation were the main meteorological factors affecting the distribution of Aedes mosquitoes in Baoshan District of Shanghai.Scientific and effective vector mosquito monitoring and prediction based on the correlation between meteorology and mosquito growth can lay a foundation for the early warning,risk assessment and scientific prevention and control of diseases transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes.