全球供应链视角下的中国碳排放责任与形象

China’s carbon emission responsibility and image from the perspective of global supply chain

碳中和目标下,基于供应链调整各国间的碳排放关系,明确中国碳排放责任与形象,对于中国深化绿色发展、实现低碳转型具有重要意义。基于全球供应链视角,引入生产与贸易中的碳排放问题,并构建碳供应链测度分析模型。本文基于2008-2014年世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)数据,首先,明确中国在碳供应链生产端的国内生产长度、国外生产长度,以及中国在碳供应链贸易端的碳出口、碳进口规模;其次,测算并总结中国、美国等19个世界主要国家碳净出口与国内碳排放情况,对比分析上述国家碳泄漏与碳减排情况,从而剖析并刻画中国碳排放责任与形象;最后,基于19个世界主要国家碳供应链生产、贸易端的情况,总结得出各国碳供应链国内、国外情况,进一步探究中国在全球供应链视角下的碳排放责任与形象调整方向。结果表明:①中国国内生产长度呈现二、三、一产业梯次化衰减特征,国外生产长度明显趋短,且能源、电气等关键产业陷入低端锁定困局;②中国年均碳出口、碳进口分别达880.375 MT、401.328 MT,碳规模位居世界前列;③中国贡献了 41.21%的碳净出口份额,美英日法则形成686.511 MT的碳泄漏缺口,中国以全球最大的碳净出口国家身份,在全球供应链体系中承担积极的碳排放责任;中美俄国内碳排放达到1000 MT以上,但中国碳减排率达3.79%,显著高于美国2.07%、俄罗斯-1.05%,中国以较高的碳利用率呈现碳减排形象;④中国国内、国外碳供应链均处于"野猪型"状态,碳供应链质量有待提升;发达国家国内碳供应链多以"水牛型"状态出现,萎缩的经济降低了生产能力与碳排放量;国外碳供应链中,发达国家多呈现"乌龟型"特征,碳减排乏力且碳排放责任推诿。因此,中国须针对生产环节调整产业结构,摆脱产业依赖,继续秉持大国碳减排责任、呈现积极的碳排放形象。

Under the goal of carbon neutrality, adjusting the carbon emission relationship between countries based on the supply chain and clarifying China’s carbon emission responsibilities and image is of great significance for China to deepen green development and realize low-carbon transformation. Based on the perspective of global supply chain, introduce carbon emission issues in production and trade, and build a carbon supply chain measurement and analysis model. Based on the data of 43 countries in the WIOD database from 2008 to 2014, this paper first clarifies China’s domestic production length and foreign production length at the production end of the carbon supply chain, as well as China’s carbon export and carbon import scale at the trade end of the carbon supply chain;second, summary It also measures the net carbon exports and domestic carbon emissions of 19 major countries in the world, including China and the United States, and compares and analyzes the carbon leakage and carbon emission reductions of the above-mentioned countries, so as to analyze and characterize China’s carbon emissions responsibility and image.Finally, based on the production and trade end of the carbon supply chains of 19 major countries in the world, we summarize the domestic and foreign conditions of the carbon supply chains of each country, and further explore China’s carbon emission responsibility and image adjustment direction from the perspective of the global supply chain. The results show that:(1) China’s domestic production length presents the characteristics of secondary, tertiary, and first industrial cascading attenuation, and foreign production lengths are obviously decreasing, and key industries such as energy and electrical are in a low-end lock-in dilemma;(2) China’s annual average carbon exports and carbon imports are respectively The carbon scale reached 880.375 MT and 401.328 MT, ranking the top in the world;(3) China contributed 41.21% of the net carbon export share, and the US, Britain and Japan rules formed a carbon leakage gap of 686.511 MT. China is the world’s largest net carbon exporter in the world. The supply chain system assumes active carbon emission responsibilities;The carbon emissions in China, the United States and Russia have reached more than 1000 MT, but China’s carbon emission reduction rate has reached 3.79%, which is significantly higher than the United States’ 2.07% and Russia’s-1.05%. Utilization rate presents the image of carbon emission reduction;(4) China’s domestic and foreign carbon supply chains are in a state of"wild boar", and the quality of carbon supply chains needs to be improved;developed countries mostly appear in the state of "buffalo" in domestic carbon supply chains, with a shrinking economy Reduced production capacity and carbon emissions;in foreign carbon supply chains, most developed countries have a"turtle-like"characteristic, with weak carbon emission reductions and shirk responsibility for carbon emissions. Therefore, China must adjust its industrial structure for production links, get rid of industrial dependence, continue to uphold the responsibility of a major country in reducing carbon emissions, and present a positive image of carbon emissions.