基于预测微生物学的肉糕货架期模型

Shelf Life Model for Meat Cake Based on Predictive Microbiology

为有效贮藏肉糕、保证食品安全,测定了肉糕在不同贮藏温度(4、10、15、20、25 ℃)下的菌落总数变化情况,通过修正的Gompertz方程和平方根方程,建立了肉糕的货架期预测模型。结果表明,在4、10、15、20、25 ℃贮藏时,修正Gompertz方程的决定系数R2分别为0.9217、0.9745、0.9751、0.9514、0.9775(均大于0.9),能较好地拟合4~25 ℃微生物的生长动态。拟合的平方根模型描述了温度对延滞时间、最大比生长速率的影响,√1/λ与贮藏温度、√μmax与贮藏温度均呈良好的线性关系,R2分别为0.978、0.9758。在此基础上建立肉糕的货架期预测模型能够较好地预测肉糕在4~25 ℃贮藏温度下的货架期。

In order to store meat cake effectively and improve food safety,the changes of total bacterial colonies of meat cake at different storage temperatures (4,10,15,20,25 ℃) were determined,and a shelf life prediction model of meat cake was developed through the modified Gompertz equation and the square root equation.The results showed that the R2 of modified Gompertz equation were 0.9217,0.9745,0.9751,0.9514 and 0.9775 (all greater than 0.9) at 4,10,15,20 and 25 ℃,respectively,which could fit the growth dynamics of microorganisms at 4~25 ℃.The fitted square root model described the effect of temperature on the delay time,the maximum specific growth rate,and showed a good linear relationship with √1/λ and storage temperature,√μmax and the storage temperature.R2 was 0.978 and 0.9758,respectively.Based on this,the shelf life prediction model of meat cake could better predict the shelf life of meat cake at the storage temperature of 4~25 ℃.