“一带一路”沿线国家贸易条件测算与比较分析——基于产品种类变动的视角

Calculation and Comparative Analysis of the Terms of Trade of Countries along the Belt and Road--Based on the Perspective of Product Category Changes

随着“一带一路”倡议的推进,如何提升贸易利益、实现共同发展显得尤为重要。利用CEPⅡBACI中“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易数据,测算了其1998—2017年固定产品种类、变动产品种类的贸易条件以及不同技术等级的产品贸易条件,并基于进出口扩展边际、产品种类数量的变化分析贸易条件变化的原因。研究表明:超过半数的沿线国家的平均FTT是改善的,尤其是纳入扩展边际后,其VTT有显著的提升,且技术含量越高的产品,VTT改善程度越大。对比中国与沿线国家的贸易条件与产品种类的变化趋势,建议沿线国家发挥各自优势、深化各国间的经贸、技术合作,同时不仅要通过增加产品种类数量短期内保持贸易条件稳定,而且在长期内要实现创新增长方式由品种增长型向质量升级型转变、推动贸易条件可持续发展。

With the advancement of the"One Belt One Road"initiative,how to enhance trade interests and achieve common development becomes particularly important.Using the trade data of countries along the Belt and Road in CEPⅡBACI,the terms of trade for fixed product types,variable product types,and trade terms for products of different technical levels were calculated from 1998 to 2017.And analyze the reasons for the changes in terms of trade based on the changes in the import and export expansion margins and the Number of product categories.Research shows that the average FTT of more than half of the countries along the Belt and Road has improved,especially after the expansion margin is included,their VTT has been significantly improved,and the higher the technical content of the product,the greater the degree of improvement in VTT.Comparing the changes in terms of trade and product types between China and countries along the Belt and Road,it is recommended that the countries along the Belt and Road give full play to their respective advantages and deepen economic,trade and technological cooperation among countries.It is not only necessary to maintain stable terms of trade in the short term by increasing the number of product categories,but also in the long term to realize the transformation of innovative growth mode from a variety growth model to a quality upgrade model,and promote the sustainable development of trade terms.