工业机器人的使用对制造业增长的影响——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

Industrial Robots and Manufacturing Growth:An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

作为一种重要的人工智能,工业机器人的使用有助于推动制造业增长。基于中国制造业以及CRIA工业机器人省际面板数据,实证研究发现:工业机器人安装量每增加1%,制造业产值平均增长0.6%;即使考虑经济增长“惯性”,工业机器人的影响也达到了0.1%至0.4%。进一步地,为了验证工业机器人的使用是否与传统要素投入一样存在边际报酬递减现象,文章构建了面板门限模型,回归结果表明,与传统要素投入的边际报酬递减相比,现阶段工业机器人会带来制造业产出的持续增长,没有出现边际报酬递减情况。因此,加快发展人工智能技术有利于促进经济持续增长。最后提出了相关政策建议。

As an important application of artificial intelligence,the use of industrial robots is conducive to the steady growth of manufacturing industry.Based on the data of China′s manufacturing industry and CRIA′s industrial robot provincial panel,the empirical study finds that:for every 1%increase in the use of industrial robots,the average growth of manufacturing output value is 0.6%;even considering the"inertia"effect of economic growth,the impact of industrial robots also reaches 0.1%to 0.4%.Furthermore,in order to verify whether the use of industrial robots has the same phenomenon of diminishing marginal returns like traditional factor inputs,the paper constructs a panel threshold model.The regression results show that,compared with the diminishing marginal returns of traditional factor inputs,industrial robots at this stage will bring the continuous growth of manufacturing output,and will not see diminishing marginal returns.Therefore,accelerating the development of artificial intelligence technology is conducive to promoting sustained economic growth.Finally,some policy suggestions are put forward.