广西北部湾经济区设立的经济增长促进效应研究——基于2003—2017年准自然实验的双重差分检验

Research on the Economic Growth Promotion Effect to the Establishment of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone:a Difference-in-Difference Test Based on Quasi-Natural Experiments in 2003—2017

基于2003—2017年准自然实验的双重差分检验方法,实证检验广西北部湾经济区设立对经济增长的促进效应。研究结果显示:北部湾经济区设立对经济增长具有显著促进作用,平行趋势检验和安慰剂检验均表明这一结论有效;消费对经济区经济增长有显著的阻碍作用,第二产业比重对经济增长有显著促进作用,投资、政府预算支出和净出口的作用不显著。北部湾经济区要加强招商引资力度、扩大商品出口规模、稳定政府预算支出、积极扩大居民消费并继续提高第二产业比重。

Based on the difference-in-difference method of quasi-natural experiment in 2003—2017,this paper empirically tests the promotion effect of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone on economic growth.The results show that:the establishment of economic zone has a significant role in promoting economic growth,parallel trend test and placebo test show that this conclusion is effective.Consumption of control variables has a significant hindrance to economic growth,the proportion of secondary industry has a significant promotion to economic growth,while investment,government budget expenditure and net export have no significant effect.In the future,to construct Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,it is necessary to strengthen capital attraction,expand the scale of commodity export,stabilize government budget expenditure,actively expand residents'consumption and continue to increase the proportion of secondary industry.