美国页岩气和致密油发展现状与前景展望

Development Status and Prospects of Shale Gas and Tight Oil in the United States

美国页岩气和致密油主要产自阿纳达科盆地、阿巴拉契亚盆地、巴肯、伊格尔福特、海恩斯维尔、奈厄布拉勒和二叠盆地等7大页岩区。钻井数和完井数是反映页岩气和致密油勘探开发活动的重要指标,美国7个主要页岩区的钻井数和完井数都是由于2014年下半年和2020年初的油价大幅下跌,导致了两轮明显下降,且第二轮比第一轮下降更快,目前正在恢复。在低油价下,为了提升资本运营效率,美国页岩油气作业公司采取了"先钻井延迟完井"的策略,2014年以来月度累计已钻待完井井数总体呈增长趋势,到2019年6月达到8491口,随后呈下降趋势。美国页岩气和致密油的证实储量总体呈不断增长趋势,只是由于2014年油价暴跌导致2015年末的证实储量双双同比减少,但2016年又恢复增长并持续到2019年。2019年,美国页岩气证实储量在天然气证实储量总量中的占比超过了71%,致密油证实储量在原油+凝析油证实储量总量中的占比达到49.3%。目前美国页岩气产量占全美天然气产量的68.3%,致密油产量占到66%以上的份额,均居主导地位,同时也是未来美国天然气和石油产量增长的主要来源。

Shale gas and tight oil in the United States are produced in seven major shale plays :the Anadarko,A ppalachian,Bakken,Eagleford,Haynesville,Naieblale and Permian basins.The number of well drilling and completions are important indicators of exploration and production of shale gas and tight oil.The sharp drop in oil prices in the second half of 2014 and early 2020 led to two rounds of significant declines of the number of well drilling and completions in these seven shale plays,and the second round was faster than the first and is now recovering.In order to improve capital efficiency at low oil prices,US shale operators have adopted a strategy of "drilling first and completion later".Since 2014,the total number of wells drilled to be completed per month has been increasing,reaching 8491 by June 2019,and then decreasing.Proved reserves of US shale gas and tight oil are on an overall upward trend,with both declined at the end of 2015 due to the collapse in oil prices in 2014,but recovered to grow in 2016 and continued to 2019.In 2019,the proved reserves of shale gas accounted for more than 71% of total proved reserves of natural gas in the United States,and the proved reserves of tight oil accounted for 49.3% of total proved reserves of crude oil and condensate.At present,the production of shale gas in the United States accounts for 68.3% of that of US natural gas,while the production of tight oil accounts for more than 66%,both of which are the dominant sources of future growth in US natural gas and oil production.